Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction, odds: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets from model on 87-59 run


The Golden State Warriors will have their second chance to close out the Dallas Mavericks when the teams collide for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on Thursday night in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Dallas was able to push the series to a fifth game with its 119-109 win on Tuesday. Golden State has won eight straight home games this postseason and has never lost consecutive games after taking a 3-0 lead in a series.

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State is the 6.5-point favorite in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 215. Before locking in any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference finals in the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 87-59 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Golden State -6.5
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 215 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Golden State -320, Dallas +250
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • DAL: Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games
  • GS: Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Warriors can cover

Guard Klay Thompson provides the Warriors with another knockdown shooter on the perimeter. Thompson has an effortless shooting stroke with outstanding range. Dallas must always account for Thompson on the floor due to his ability to light up the scoreboard in a hurry. The five-time All-Star also plays sound defense and can swipe steals with consistency. Thompson averages 19 points, 4.4 rebounds and is shooting 38 percent from downtown during the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

Forward Jonathan Kuminga comes off the bench and provides a spark. Kuminga is an explosive athlete who can finish with force around the rim. The 19-year-old rookie has solid ball handles and can create his own shot if needed. Kuminga does his best work when he’s in attack mode. The 2021 seventh overall pick dropped 17 points and eight boards in his last outing.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas found the key to success in Game 4 — spread Golden State’s zone defense out and provide Luka Doncic with some help on the perimeter. Doncic only scored 30 points after reaching the 40-point mark in his previous two games, but that was exactly what the Mavericks needed. Dorian Finney-Smith stepped up with 23 points, while Reggie Bullock added 18 points.

Golden State finally cooled off from the perimeter, knocking down just 10 3-pointers in Game 4. The Warriors were favored by 5.5 and six points in the first two games of this series, respectively, so there is some value with Dallas getting 6.5 points on Thursday. The Mavericks have covered the spread in 12 of the last 18 head-to-head meetings between these teams. 

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.